TrendForce reports that the U.S. began implementing reciprocal tariffs on April 9th, based largely on trade deficits. Consequently, Asia—particularly Southeast Asia, a key hub for the consumer electronics supply chain—has been significantly impacted. The display industry now faces potential tariffs on optical films and AMOLED organic light-emitting materials, which may drive up material costs. Meanwhile, end-user demand could weaken, and prices for finished products may rise.
On April 2nd, the U.S. announced a new round of reciprocal tariffs, followed by a provision allowing exemption for goods with more than 20% “U.S. value”. TrendForce’s latest observations reveal that the lack of macroeconomic improvement since 2024, coupled with the inflationary and recessionary risks posed by these new tariffs, has prompted a downward revision of the 2025 shipment outlook for several end-device markets—including AI servers, servers, smartphones, and notebooks.
TrendForce reports that global smartphone production in the last quarter of 2024 reached 334.5 million units, reflecting a 9.2% QoQ increase, driven by Apple’s peak production season and consumer subsidies from local Chinese governments. While Apple expanded production with the launch of new models, Samsung faced production declines due to intensified competition in emerging markets.
TrendForce’s latest research finds that 3Q24 coincided with the peak season for smartphone sales. The launch of flagship models by major brands propelled global smartphone production to a QoQ increase of 7%, reaching approximately 310 million units and matching figures from the same period last year. However, production volumes for the quarter have not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, signaling a continued lack of clear recovery momentum in the global consumer market.
TrendForce reports that the global notebook market in 2024 is projected to recover at a moderate pace, hindered by high interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties. Annual shipments are forecast to reach 174 million units, marking a 3.9% YoY increase. Looking ahead to 2025, reduced political uncertainty following the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts in September 2024 are expected to stimulate capital flow. Combined with the end-of-service for Windows 10 and demand for commercial device upgrades, global notebook shipments are predicted to grow by 4.9% to 183 million units in 2025.
